An adaptive forecasting algorithm and inventory policy for products with short life cycles

Products with short life cycles are becoming increasingly common in many industries, such as the personal computer (PC) and mobile phone industries. Traditional forecasting methods and inventory policies can be inappropriate for forecasting demand and managing inventory for a product with a short life cycle because they usually do not take into account the characteristics of the product life cycle. This can result in inaccurate forecasts, high inventory cost, and low service levels. Besides, many forecasting methods require a significant demand history, which is available only after the product has been sold for some time. In this paper, we present an adaptive forecasting algorithm with two characteristics. First, it uses structural knowledge on the product life cycle to model the demand. Second, it combines knowledge on the demand that is available prior to the launch of the product with actual demand data that become available after the introduction of the product to generate and update demand forecasts. Based on the forecasting algorithm, we develop an optimal inventory policy. Since the optimal inventory policy is computationally expensive, we propose three heuristics and show in a numerical study that one of the heuristics generates near‐optimal solutions. The evaluation of our approach is based on demand data from a leading PC manufacturer in the United States, where the forecasting algorithm has been implemented. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2004.     

Optimal pricing for a short life‐cycle product when customer price‐sensitivity varies over time

Technology products often experience a life‐cycle demand pattern that resembles a diffusion process, with weak demand in the beginning and the end of the life cycle and high demand intensity in between. The customer price‐sensitivity also changes over the life cycle of the product. We study the prespecified pricing decision for a product that exhibits such demand characteristics. In particular, we determine the optimal set of discrete prices and the times to switch from one price to another, when a limited number of price changes are allowed. Our study shows that the optimal prices and switching times show interesting patterns that depend on the product's demand pattern and the change in the customers' price sensitivity over the life cycle of the product. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Naval Research Logistics, 2012     

对高重频PD雷达的舍脉冲干扰

高重频PD雷达是为解决测速模糊而在机载雷达中广泛采用的一种PD雷达工作模式,从PD雷达的特性来讲,由于带宽比较窄使得噪声干扰能量利用效率不是很高。采用DRFM精确获取雷达信号实施干扰是当前干扰的发展方向,但是对占空比接近50%的高重频PD雷达,采用对低重频PD及中重频PD可行的距离拖引,速度拖引等一系列在雷达信号脉冲串间隔内产生复杂调制的干扰方法是不合适的。主要针对高重频PD雷达重频高、占空比大的特点,提出了一种舍脉冲干扰方法,对DRFM截获的雷达信号进行快速部分转发,间隔一定脉冲数舍弃一个脉冲,改变原雷达信号的脉冲重复周期,使得在频域上产生多个速度欺骗性干扰信号,并通过仿真验证了干扰的有效性。     

一类二次微分系统在三次多项式扰动下的极限环估计

计算了一类二次Hamilton微分系统的一阶Mel’nikov函数,通过此方法对该系统在三次多项式扰动下分岔的极限环个数进行了估计。     

基于全寿命周期的舰船喷水推进装置综合保障技术研究

针对舰船喷水推进装置的保障需求，介绍了喷水推进装置的基本组成、技术特点，引入环境特征，使用特征因素，研究喷水推进装置从交装到服役期满的全寿命服役周期的综合保障技术，提出针对喷水推进装置在不同状态、不同时期的保障策略，建立喷水推进装置保障能力体系。     

质漏对联合循环化学发动机性能的影响

分析存在有限速率传质和质漏损失的联合循环化学发动机性能,导出功率、效率最佳关系,最大功率及其相应效率,以及最大效率及其相应功率     

工质变比热和传热损失对Diesel循环性能的影响

用有限时间热力学的方法分析空气标准Diesel循环,由数值计算给出了存在传热损失和工质变比热时循环功与压缩比、效率与压缩比以及功和效率的特性关系,并分析了传热损失和工质变比热对循环性能的影响特点,通过分析可知传热和变比热特性对Diesel循环性能有较大影响,所以在实际循环分析中应该予以考虑.     

导弹升力面扭片刚度衰减研究

针对导弹长期储存升力面扭片刚度衰减问题,用损伤力学的方法给出了扭转力矩随时间变化的解析解,并对解析解进行了数值模拟。结果表明,刚度衰减主要发生在开始阶段,因此研制阶段扭片储存试验不需要太长的时间。     

装甲车辆动力传动系统整体性工程初探

全面考虑装甲车辆动力传动系统论证、研制、生产及使用等方面的因素,从整体、系统和全局的观点出发,论述了装甲车辆动力传动系统的整体式设计、一体化控制、性能综合评价和寿命周期费用分析.从而把装甲车辆动力传动系统的论证、研制、生产及使用看作一个整体性工程来考虑,克服了以往设计和使用中重点突出某一过程或部件,而忽略相互匹配和顾此失彼的问题,为在现有技术基础上进一步提高装甲车辆的机动性能,提供了一种新的研究思路.     

定常态不可逆卡诺热机面积特性

对定常态不可逆卡诺热机进行了有限时间热力学分析.定义了功率、效率和面积比系数,并导出三者的关系式,由此对热机最佳功率、效率和面积特性进行了分析和讨论,给出了一些有益的结论.